Exception to the Rule

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Now go talk about it.

Experts claim that a human can survive in waters just below freezing for 15 to 30 minutes. Within half an hour you get hypothermia and die.

EXCEPTION TO THE RULE - FLYING IN THE WIND (feat. Pasi Oranen & Stefan Schwarzmann)

Case closed. Charles Joughin, realized that he, as a member of the crew, would not be given a place in a lifeboat. As the ship began listing at an alarming angle, he decided to drink himself into oblivion. Joughin drank himself into the history books by finishing not one, but two bottles of whiskey as the Titanic descended into its watery grave.

Rule without Exception / Only Exceptions - Lewis Baltz - Steidl Verlag

What does this tell us? Were the medical experts wrong? Or was Joughin just an outlier, an anomaly, an exception to the rule? One of the simplest principles, which I discussed recently , is:.

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Are there exceptions to this? Of course. Just look at gold as a long term asset class. It has lots of risk with little reward:. We could have the same return as gold for far less risk by creating a diversified portfolio. Technically, you can have the same return with less risk for all of portfolios above besides the optimal one. So, yes it is possible , but this completely misses the point of my argument. When I discuss risk and reward, I am talking about large shifts in portfolio outcomes, not marginal ones.

As Lawrence Hamtil pointed out, just invest in a subset of its sectors:.

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But, why should we stop here? Why not just find the single stock with the best risk-adjusted returns and put all of our money into that? You can see that doing this would be ridiculous, but it gets at my bigger point. And this was a trained medical professional who I'm sure understood the importance of using statistical averages within the context of his discipline.

I provide these examples to simply make the point that our personal experiences bias us heavily when we are making assessments of research findings, in particular findings in the field of psychology. The initial photo is by Janan Sarwar. More of her work can be found here. Thanks for this article. It kinda made me laugh. This is exactly the sort of response you get in general conversation as well.

There Are Exceptions to Every Rule

Someone always knows someone who does not fit the general topic being discussed. Eg smoking is harmful, but my grandmother lived to 96 and smoked 3 packets a day.

That sort of thing. We all want to be special, we all want to be unique, we all want to stand out from the rest. I think that's part of it. Perhaps our brains are biased this way as a kind of survival instinct, fighting to retain our identity and independence from the herd. Don't know, but it's intriguing. Which goes on to illustrate that outside of hardcore numerical analysis, very few people actually 'get' the usefulness of data, unless it is oversimplified.

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  • And frequently, to make these wonderful findings relevant and available to the average joe, we cloak it in the language best understood by him, and sometimes even oxymorons Why is there a picture of a kid picking his nose here? Not getting the connection to the article After reading this article I have seen different point of views and I still believe people are going to think what they want to think no matter what.

    They will assume its ok for some people to do something but not others. No doubt some of your confrontations are with people who are self-conscious about the reputation of their professions, but leave open the possibility that in with them you have lumped some important few who simply question the value you place on averages in the instance of your article.

    Reflect on the degree to which your desire that psychology be seen as a real science affects your reactions to those who seem not to understand your work. But there are many fields of knowledge where anecdotes are all we have. For example if you read a biography to find out what a famous person is like, all you have are the recollections and impressions of those who knew him to decide whether he was a jerk or a nice guy. No objective scientific measures of character.

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    • Rule "wrong preposition: 'exception PREPOSITION the rule' (exception to the rule)".
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    • Jonathan Wai, Ph. A new study explores the IDEA program and adulthood outomes. Tech, finance, and investment billionaires increasingly come from elite schools. Similarly, homeopathy uses this sense of the word for proving , though there is neither testing nor proving in the scientific sense. In some cases, either of these definitions of "prove" creates a working sentence, which somewhat explains the change in definition.

      For example I can say that porn found on a priest 's hard drive "proves" that he is a paedophile , and it works for either definition; it either a provides hard evidence of paedophilia, thus proving the accusation to be true in the modern sense of the word, or b provides a legitimate test of whether or not the priest is a paedophile — if the subjects of the porn are under age, he is defined as a paedophile.

      However, the aphorism "the exception that proves the rule" was not treated properly by the shift in definition, and now it looks like a way for idiots to justify their idiocy. Hence the phrase can be used correctly in the context of the scientific method , when testing a hypothesis by examining possible exceptions to it and whether they invalidate the hypothesis.

      So if I hypothesise that "all swans are white" under the condition that at least one swan exists , the discovery of the black swan Cygnus atratus "proves" meaning "tests" my rule. In this case, the rule is falsified. Fighting pseudoscience isn't free. Jump to: navigation , search.

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      This page was last modified on 18 August , at Unless explicitly noted otherwise, all content licensed as indicated by RationalWiki:Copyrights. Part of the series on Logic and rhetoric. Key articles. Logical fallacy Syllogism Argument. General logic. Bad logic.

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